Aprendizado
Dilma 2 and FHC 2, the difference in similarity
dilma fhc
Datafolha survey just released suggests that Dilma Roussef 2 in 2015, repeats the Fernando Henrique Cardoso's political situation 2, 1999. There are undeniable similarities between the beginning of this government and the beginning of that, but also there are fundamental and decisive differences. Evaluate them and help us understand the present and envision the future.
This research has just shown that the president is in the same situation that FHC at the beginning of his term in 1999.
Political and economic context of the re-election of Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1998) and Dilma (2014)
FHC
In 1998, Brazil was broken. Foreign exchange reserves, then at 44.5 billion dollars (data as of December 31) were spent to hold the value of the dollar during the election campaign.
Unemployment was high (9%), inflation was low (1.66 IPCA), but would reach 9% next year and over 12% in 2002. The minimum wage was R $ 130 (or $ 130, today R $ 400).
The market, as in 2014, already knew that whoever won would win the election, the first year in office (1999-2002) would be quite difficult. What's more, I knew the real devaluation was a matter of time, and only at that moment did not occur because of the election campaign.
FHC, however, was re-elected stating that those who devalue the currency the following year would be Lula, should win the election. The strategy worked and the toucan was reelected easily in the first round.
In the political context, despite many allegations of corruption nothing was investigated due to the fact that the attorney general's office, which could initiate investigations against the government, was a cousin of the Republic vice president, Marco Maciel. Geraldo Brindeiro, the PGR, in eight years of government never allowed any investigation against the federal government was established.
In addition to the shield on the Attorney General's Office, FHC still had the sympathy of the press. The only major newspaper admitted that the critical state of the economy was the Folha de São Paulo. Elsewhere in the mainstream press and on television, no major vehicle admitted the crisis loomed. It goes without saying that even the Leaf, the news was largely favorable to the government and hostile to the opposition (PT).
DILMA ROUSSEFF
In 2014, despite the low growth, the country ended the year with the exchange of 374 billion dollars order bookings and to "investment grade" in all the rating agencies.
Unemployment, like the economy, also walked well in the year of the re-election of Dilma, unlike the year of Cardoso's re-election. In 2014, it stood at 4.8%. Inflation, unlike FHC, was high, the IPCA. Hit 7.7%. The minimum wage was R $ 788, or about $ 300, more than double 1998.
Last year, the country was not in the same situation as in 1998, but it was predictable that it would have to make a fiscal adjustment, for tax breaks, made during the first Rousseff's mandate in order not to drop the level of employment and wages , left the public accounts deficit.
Although Rousseff have said during the election campaign last year that there would be to make adjustments in the economy due to the so-called political "counter-cyclical" that aimed to preserve jobs and income reduce the tax burden on companies, especially the payrolls, as Cardoso did in 1998 He attributed the necessary adjustments to the opponent. While not saying that it would make adjustments, it was not sufficiently emphatic, allowing the population to believe that, with her, there would be some consideration payable.
In the political context, however, it is living the big differences. The mainstream press who tried to shield FHC throughout his two terms, was antagonistic of all governments of the PT since January 1, 2003.
In addition, since June 2013 that Brazil has been shaken by incessant protests. And as if that was not enough, since 2012 the opponents of the PT could dispose of the fact that the FHC government's difference, the Lula and Dilma appointed attorneys general of exempt Republic, who investigated the two governments incessantly, sometimes with bias Political otherwise. All this meant that Dilma reached the 2014 election campaign as the weakest PT candidate since 2002.
During the 2014 campaign, the mainstream media weight did the opposite 1998, painting a situation much worse economy than the reality, because despite the difficulties the country still has low unemployment, controlled inflation and higher wage level since the democratization.
Nevertheless, due to the fact that this same press always trumpeted economic chaos since Lula came to power, and also because the left-wing opposition joined Dilma in the second round, we managed to get re-elected, albeit with great difficulty.
Political context of the beginning of the Cardoso government (1999) and Dilma (2015) context and with great dificuldade.oo is governments incessantly, sometimes with vip what made Dilma arrived
FHC
In the second week of the second term of FHC, it became clear to the people who had been misled by the statements of President of the Republic, during the election campaign, in the sense that, if it were re-elected, there would be no devaluation of the real.
On January 13, 1999, the president of the Central Bank, Gustavo Franco, resigned. Francisco Lopes, his successor, announces the creation of a new type of exchange control, called "endogenous diagonal band." As the Central Bank was the low foreign exchange reserves ($ 32 billion), failed to keep the dollar on the edge of the band of R $ 1.32, and was forced to allow the floating of the exchange. Thus the Real depreciates rapidly, reaching a peak of R $ 2.16 in March 1999.
On March 7, 1999, Datafolha poll showed the newly elected president with 43% rejection rate and good / good 18%. Despite the popularity of FHC be too bad for a president who had just been reelected in the first round, the support of the press prevented the situation was worse.
DILMA
Rousseff takes over on January 1 this year with 42% of good or excellent and 24% disapproval, inherited from December. At the end of the month, approval dropped to 23% and the disapproval nearly doubled, beating 44%.
Throughout the month of January, appointments of ministers of the conservative camp as Katia Abreu, for agriculture, and Joaquim Levy, for the Treasury, provoked outrage among political groups of the left who supported the re-election, while necessary fiscal adjustment that difficult to obtain unemployment insurance, for example, countered, in part, the speech of the president during the election campaign.
Dilma never denied during the campaign, which would be to make "adjustments" in the economy - FHC in 1998, denied flatly, devaluation of the real. However, it was extremely economical in the explanations on this issue, so that, as occurred with FHC, the population felt betrayed.
The loss of popularity of FHC (1999) and Dilma (2014)
What draws attention in the comparison of Cardoso's political situation in 1999, and Dilma, in 2015, is that today the situation is much less difficult than 16 years ago. Brazil is assembled in about four hundred billion dollars, wages are valued, poverty and misery plunged in the country, the population is still living the effects of 12 years of economic boom, with its zero kilometer cars, kids in college etc., etc., etc.
What explains the current situation of Dilma be even worse than that of FHC at the beginning of his second term, is obviously the press today in opposition, while in 1999 it was ruling. As a result, despite the difficult economic situation that year, there were no street protests.
The future of FHC 2 and Dilma 2
The future of FHC 2, of course, is passed. However, go over what happened to his second term. As we know, the former president and his government crossed the term of four years lame until, in 2002, the toucan failed to make his successor.
Because of the convenience that the support of the press gave him even in spite of the electoral larceny, FHC was touching the boat carelessly, believing it would be impossible to EN defeat him. Believed in the legend of the roof of the party and Lula was even, 30% of the electorate.
Reassured by the media shield, FHC ruled the four years following on autopilot until this attitude took its toll. Between 2001 and 2002, vigeu in Brazil a really tough rationing of electricity, as well as high unemployment, inflation and falling wages that marked his second term.
On December 15, 2002, two weeks of Lula's inauguration, 36% of Brazilians considered bad Cardoso government or very poor and 26% considered good or excellent, even with all the armor of the press, insufficient for him to do his successor.
The situation Dilma today is worse than that of FHC at the beginning of his second term. Antagonism Press suggests ending his government worse than him. Not to mention that the toucan difference, the opposition and the media flirt with democratic break, trying to get some excuse to shoot it.
However, the factor that made FHC rule on autopilot for so fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth years of government is not there to Dilma. Without support from the media, if you do not take the mandate rule with much attention and, like the toucan, can regain popularity.
By having nearly four years ahead, Dilma has a chance to write another story for you. The administration will have to avoid the mistakes made by his predecessor. Even that is not his successor in 2018, you will have to think about his biography and his party. At this point, what is important for her to Lula and the PT is to deliver a different country than FHC delivered on January 1, 2003.
So far, however, despite the media's treatment of difference, Dilma repeated mistakes made by the toucan. But also committed own mistakes, like forgetting what FHC never neglected, communication. If this keeps up, even ending his tenure bequeath a country bankrupt to an extreme right turned into a savior of the nation.
Or Dilma may decide to change history that has not been written: his. As it has not much to lose, it's time to dare. And daring at the time, it means pay attention to the following: the same Datafolha has shown that the people are right in customs, but left in the economy. Bingo!
http://superpsicoeducador.blogspot.com.br/
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Aprendizado
Dilma 2 and FHC 2, the difference in similarity
Dilma 2 and FHC 2, the difference in similarity
dilma fhc
Datafolha survey just released suggests that Dilma Roussef 2 in 2015, repeats the Fernando Henrique Cardoso's political situation 2, 1999. There are undeniable similarities between the beginning of this government and the beginning of that, but also there are fundamental and decisive differences. Evaluate them and help us understand the present and envision the future.
This research has just shown that the president is in the same situation that FHC at the beginning of his term in 1999.
Political and economic context of the re-election of Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1998) and Dilma (2014)
FHC
In 1998, Brazil was broken. Foreign exchange reserves, then at 44.5 billion dollars (data as of December 31) were spent to hold the value of the dollar during the election campaign.
Unemployment was high (9%), inflation was low (1.66 IPCA), but would reach 9% next year and over 12% in 2002. The minimum wage was R $ 130 (or $ 130, today R $ 400).
The market, as in 2014, already knew that whoever won would win the election, the first year in office (1999-2002) would be quite difficult. What's more, I knew the real devaluation was a matter of time, and only at that moment did not occur because of the election campaign.
FHC, however, was re-elected stating that those who devalue the currency the following year would be Lula, should win the election. The strategy worked and the toucan was reelected easily in the first round.
In the political context, despite many allegations of corruption nothing was investigated due to the fact that the attorney general's office, which could initiate investigations against the government, was a cousin of the Republic vice president, Marco Maciel. Geraldo Brindeiro, the PGR, in eight years of government never allowed any investigation against the federal government was established.
In addition to the shield on the Attorney General's Office, FHC still had the sympathy of the press. The only major newspaper admitted that the critical state of the economy was the Folha de São Paulo. Elsewhere in the mainstream press and on television, no major vehicle admitted the crisis loomed. It goes without saying that even the Leaf, the news was largely favorable to the government and hostile to the opposition (PT).
DILMA ROUSSEFF
In 2014, despite the low growth, the country ended the year with the exchange of 374 billion dollars order bookings and to "investment grade" in all the rating agencies.
Unemployment, like the economy, also walked well in the year of the re-election of Dilma, unlike the year of Cardoso's re-election. In 2014, it stood at 4.8%. Inflation, unlike FHC, was high, the IPCA. Hit 7.7%. The minimum wage was R $ 788, or about $ 300, more than double 1998.
Last year, the country was not in the same situation as in 1998, but it was predictable that it would have to make a fiscal adjustment, for tax breaks, made during the first Rousseff's mandate in order not to drop the level of employment and wages , left the public accounts deficit.
Although Rousseff have said during the election campaign last year that there would be to make adjustments in the economy due to the so-called political "counter-cyclical" that aimed to preserve jobs and income reduce the tax burden on companies, especially the payrolls, as Cardoso did in 1998 He attributed the necessary adjustments to the opponent. While not saying that it would make adjustments, it was not sufficiently emphatic, allowing the population to believe that, with her, there would be some consideration payable.
In the political context, however, it is living the big differences. The mainstream press who tried to shield FHC throughout his two terms, was antagonistic of all governments of the PT since January 1, 2003.
In addition, since June 2013 that Brazil has been shaken by incessant protests. And as if that was not enough, since 2012 the opponents of the PT could dispose of the fact that the FHC government's difference, the Lula and Dilma appointed attorneys general of exempt Republic, who investigated the two governments incessantly, sometimes with bias Political otherwise. All this meant that Dilma reached the 2014 election campaign as the weakest PT candidate since 2002.
During the 2014 campaign, the mainstream media weight did the opposite 1998, painting a situation much worse economy than the reality, because despite the difficulties the country still has low unemployment, controlled inflation and higher wage level since the democratization.
Nevertheless, due to the fact that this same press always trumpeted economic chaos since Lula came to power, and also because the left-wing opposition joined Dilma in the second round, we managed to get re-elected, albeit with great difficulty.
Political context of the beginning of the Cardoso government (1999) and Dilma (2015) context and with great dificuldade.oo is governments incessantly, sometimes with vip what made Dilma arrived
FHC
In the second week of the second term of FHC, it became clear to the people who had been misled by the statements of President of the Republic, during the election campaign, in the sense that, if it were re-elected, there would be no devaluation of the real.
On January 13, 1999, the president of the Central Bank, Gustavo Franco, resigned. Francisco Lopes, his successor, announces the creation of a new type of exchange control, called "endogenous diagonal band." As the Central Bank was the low foreign exchange reserves ($ 32 billion), failed to keep the dollar on the edge of the band of R $ 1.32, and was forced to allow the floating of the exchange. Thus the Real depreciates rapidly, reaching a peak of R $ 2.16 in March 1999.
On March 7, 1999, Datafolha poll showed the newly elected president with 43% rejection rate and good / good 18%. Despite the popularity of FHC be too bad for a president who had just been reelected in the first round, the support of the press prevented the situation was worse.
DILMA
Rousseff takes over on January 1 this year with 42% of good or excellent and 24% disapproval, inherited from December. At the end of the month, approval dropped to 23% and the disapproval nearly doubled, beating 44%.
Throughout the month of January, appointments of ministers of the conservative camp as Katia Abreu, for agriculture, and Joaquim Levy, for the Treasury, provoked outrage among political groups of the left who supported the re-election, while necessary fiscal adjustment that difficult to obtain unemployment insurance, for example, countered, in part, the speech of the president during the election campaign.
Dilma never denied during the campaign, which would be to make "adjustments" in the economy - FHC in 1998, denied flatly, devaluation of the real. However, it was extremely economical in the explanations on this issue, so that, as occurred with FHC, the population felt betrayed.
The loss of popularity of FHC (1999) and Dilma (2014)
What draws attention in the comparison of Cardoso's political situation in 1999, and Dilma, in 2015, is that today the situation is much less difficult than 16 years ago. Brazil is assembled in about four hundred billion dollars, wages are valued, poverty and misery plunged in the country, the population is still living the effects of 12 years of economic boom, with its zero kilometer cars, kids in college etc., etc., etc.
What explains the current situation of Dilma be even worse than that of FHC at the beginning of his second term, is obviously the press today in opposition, while in 1999 it was ruling. As a result, despite the difficult economic situation that year, there were no street protests.
The future of FHC 2 and Dilma 2
The future of FHC 2, of course, is passed. However, go over what happened to his second term. As we know, the former president and his government crossed the term of four years lame until, in 2002, the toucan failed to make his successor.
Because of the convenience that the support of the press gave him even in spite of the electoral larceny, FHC was touching the boat carelessly, believing it would be impossible to EN defeat him. Believed in the legend of the roof of the party and Lula was even, 30% of the electorate.
Reassured by the media shield, FHC ruled the four years following on autopilot until this attitude took its toll. Between 2001 and 2002, vigeu in Brazil a really tough rationing of electricity, as well as high unemployment, inflation and falling wages that marked his second term.
On December 15, 2002, two weeks of Lula's inauguration, 36% of Brazilians considered bad Cardoso government or very poor and 26% considered good or excellent, even with all the armor of the press, insufficient for him to do his successor.
The situation Dilma today is worse than that of FHC at the beginning of his second term. Antagonism Press suggests ending his government worse than him. Not to mention that the toucan difference, the opposition and the media flirt with democratic break, trying to get some excuse to shoot it.
However, the factor that made FHC rule on autopilot for so fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth years of government is not there to Dilma. Without support from the media, if you do not take the mandate rule with much attention and, like the toucan, can regain popularity.
By having nearly four years ahead, Dilma has a chance to write another story for you. The administration will have to avoid the mistakes made by his predecessor. Even that is not his successor in 2018, you will have to think about his biography and his party. At this point, what is important for her to Lula and the PT is to deliver a different country than FHC delivered on January 1, 2003.
So far, however, despite the media's treatment of difference, Dilma repeated mistakes made by the toucan. But also committed own mistakes, like forgetting what FHC never neglected, communication. If this keeps up, even ending his tenure bequeath a country bankrupt to an extreme right turned into a savior of the nation.
Or Dilma may decide to change history that has not been written: his. As it has not much to lose, it's time to dare. And daring at the time, it means pay attention to the following: the same Datafolha has shown that the people are right in customs, but left in the economy. Bingo!
http://superpsicoeducador.blogspot.com.br/
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